Photo : Roman Chop/ABC News
Photo : Roman Chop/ABC News
By Rosemary Kurian
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 15 February, the Financial Times reported on how the battle of Avdiivka, the town 20 kilometres north of the Russian-occupied Donetsk, is becoming a crucial test for General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief. Syrsky has sent reinforcements to the region where battle has intensified, amid concerns of rationing of ammunition in short supply, since the US’s failure to approve fresh aid. The situation has been termed “absolutely critical” by a spokesperson for the elite 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, with Ukraine switching to a defence strategy to “exhaust the enemy.” Zelenskyy pledged “maximum attention” to Avdiivka amid parallels being drawn with the unsuccessful defence of the Bakhmut town. Ukraine could lose several experienced troops especially since it is set to replenish its ranks and mass mobilise, made more difficult in Avdiivka due to shortage of western supplies of ammunition. The Centre for Defence Strategies noted the “increased encirclement threat” posed by Russian forces against Ukrainian forces near Avdiivka. General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of the south-east Ukrainian forces, stated that Russia had attacked Avdiivka with 17 air strikes, 57 assault missions and 599 artillery strikes to seize the region and Ukraine’s supply routes. Further, since Avdiivka opens a channel to Donetsk, a Russian victory would make it difficult for Ukrainian forces to recapture the largest city in the Donbas region, occupied by Russian troops.
On 15 February, Deutsche Welle reported on the upcoming visit by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President to Germany for a meeting with Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor. Zelenskyy is also set to attend the Munich Security Conference which will host heads of states and military experts from 40 countries. The shortage of supplies from allied nations would be a topic of discussion at Munich, which will also be attended by Kamala Harris, the US Vice President. While the US Senate passed the USD 60 billion Ukraine aid bill, it is yet to be passed by the House of Representatives with a Republican majority who are likely to block the aid. Scholz said: “assistance from the United States is indispensable.” Meanwhile, Ukraine attempts to raise arms production at home since mid-2023, with support from other actors. The Baltic states and Poland have expressed unhindered support.
On 15 February, World Bank released a report on updated Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3) jointly with the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission and the UN. According to the report, the cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine rose up to USD 486 billion from USD 411 billion in 2023. In 2024, Ukraine estimated USD 15 billion for reconstruction with focus on private sector mobilisation, housing and soft infrastructure restoration, and energy and transport. The RDNA3 stated already securing USD 5.5 billion through Ukraine’s partners, with an unfunded amount of USD 9.5 billion. Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s Prime Minister, stated that Ukraine was on its path to recovery despite Russian aggression with the help of international partners, and deemed Russian frozen assets in the West as the main resource along with calls for private investments. Olivér Várhelyi, the European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, expressed continued EU support to Ukraine to address “the short and medium-term challenges” identified in the report. The RDNA3 report has assessed the direct damage in Ukraine to be worth USD 152 billion, concentrated in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kyiv oblasts.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 15 February, ABC News reported that in the latest bout of exchanges of long-range missiles between Ukraine and Russia, a missile strike in the Russian city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border killed six and injured 18. It was followed by a Russia firing of 24 cruise and ballistic missiles into Ukraine. Russia announced that its air defence systems intercepted 14 Ukrainian missiles over Belgorod, a region frequently under Ukrainian fire. Oleh Syniehubov, the Governor of the Kharkiv region, stated that the Russian fire into Ukraine killed five and injured 10.
On 15 February, RT reported on the regret expressed by Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, of delaying his offensive in Ukraine, stating that he was trusting of his adversaries with diplomacy. The 2014 Russian coup in Ukraine ended “by peaceful means” through the Minsk Accords which granted autonomous status to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine. Russia stated that its offensive in Ukraine was launched to protect the people of Donbass, where the 2014 coup had created an “anti-terrorist” operation launched by Ukrainian authorities. Russia further blames Ukraine for closing all channels of negotiations with Russia.
On 14 February, RT reported that the superyacht ‘Amadea’ owned by Russian multibillionaire Suleiman Kerimov was seized by the US government which is costing American taxpayers USD 600,000 a month to maintain. The yacht seized in Fiji under sanctions imposed against certain Russian businessmen, is currently being requested by the US government to be auctioned off, given its maintenance bill to be “excessive.” Eduard Khudainatov, another Russian billionaire and chair of Russian oil energy giant Rosneft between 2010 and 2013 attempted to block the auction claiming ‘Amadea’ to be his, which American prosecutors rejected, calling him a “straw owner” disguised by Kerimov. Meanwhile, Khudainatov’s lawyers have urged the judge to prevent the auction until the determination of “whether the seizure was unconstitutional.”
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 14 February, Politico reported on loopholes in the Baltic border rules around implementing sanctions against Russia. The republics of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have the strongest sanctions against Russia over its war with Ukraine, but the inability to effectively manage the 1600-kilometre border with Russia have led to evasion of sanctions on goods that can have dual purposes. The primary concerns are lack of manpower, funding and administrative backup to implement the regulations. The complexity arose from the longer list of sanctions and difficult legislation surrounding them. Further, truck drivers can take goods to Belarus, which has not been subjected to sanctions, so stating destination as Belarus resolves half the barriers. Arturs Kovalenko, the head of the customs services in Latvia, noted that less than half the goods cleared for customs have reached their declared destinations. Corruption in the Baltics adds to the concern, especially in the customs departments.
On 15 February, the Associated Press reported on the upcoming bilateral security agreement due to be signed between Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron, the French President, with France offering “long-term support” to his counterpart. Macron had earlier stated that the French agreement with Ukraine would be similar to the UK’s agreement with Ukraine, where the former promised a security package worth GBP 2.5 billion. A French representative stated that it marked a “collective approach” from the G7 countries to support Ukraine with military equipment.
On 15 February, ERR reported that Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s Minister of Defence, signed declarations of intent with his Baltic counterparts, agreeing to join the drone coalition led by Latvia and the demining coalition led by Lithuania. The Estonian decision is meant to support Ukraine “in both combat and humanitarian demining.”
References
Ben Hall and Christopher Miller, “Battle for Avdiivka tests Ukraine’s new commander”, Financial Times, 15 February 2024
Frank Hoffman, “Ukraine's Zelenskyy in Germany to talk security”, Deutsche Welle, 15 February 2024
“Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment Released”, World Bank, 15 February 2024
Illia Novikov and Emma Burrows, “6 people are killed, 18 injured by a missile strike in the Russian city of Belgorod, officials say”, ABC News, 15 February 2024
“Russia should have begun Ukraine operation earlier – Putin”, RT, 15 February 2024
“US spending $7mn a year on seized Russian yacht, RT, 14 February 2024
Leonie Kijewski, “The Baltic border loophole in EU’s Russia sanctions”, Politico, 15 February 2024
Sylvie Corbet, “France and Ukraine to sign a security agreement in Paris in the presence of President Zelenskyy”, Associated Press, 15 February 2024
“Estonia joins drone, demining coalitions to support Ukraine”, ERR News, 15 February 2024